Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO1
result vs predictionAAMIloss 0:1
series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Monaspawin 1:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
AMI
No games played over 6 months.
Monaspa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 333 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 385 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 578 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 252 bans
Lion
224 picks · 103 bans
Lina
221 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 270 bans
Bane
213 picks · 138 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% AMI
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Monaspa
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:42
AMI 45%Monaspa 55%
The model gave 55% on Monaspa — the game was taken by Monaspa in 33:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteMonaspa · 55%
Series resultMonaspa 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1