Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — ЮВА · BO1
result vs prediction
KOBOLDSwin 1:0series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 1:0
IinGloss 0:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
KOBOLDS
No games played over 6 months.
inG
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 332 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 575 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 251 bans
Lion
224 picks · 103 bans
Lina
221 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
217 picks · 270 bans
Bane
213 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% KOBOLDS
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% KOBOLDS
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:20
KOBOLDS 50%inG 50%
The model gave 50% on KOBOLDS — the game was taken by KOBOLDS in 45:12.
Model check result
Model favoriteKOBOLDS · 50%
Series resultKOBOLDS 1:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1