Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Северная Америка · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Magnuswin 2:1series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Stratyk Gamingloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Magnus
No games played over 6 months.
Stratyk Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
267 picks · 328 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
247 picks · 573 bans
Lion
227 picks · 101 bans
Void Spirit
226 picks · 247 bans
Lina
221 picks · 457 bans
Pangolier
215 picks · 269 bans
Bane
212 picks · 137 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Team Magnus
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Team Magnus
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:24
Team Magnus 53%Stratyk Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 37:22.
Game 2prediction missed45:16
Team Magnus 53%Stratyk Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Stratyk Gaming in 31:53.
Game 3prediction correct18:32
Team Magnus 53%Stratyk Gaming 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Magnus — the game was taken by Team Magnus in 29:08.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Magnus · 53%
Series resultTeam Magnus 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3