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CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
alohasquadloss 0:2
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 0:2
VP.Prodigywin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

alohasquad

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
спортик · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Cloud · 4 games
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Miyaoo · 3 games
0%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
ALOHADANCE · 3 games
67%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Shigetsu · 3 games
67%
Bane
Bane
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
0%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Fishman · 2 games
100%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
ALOHADANCE · 2 games
50%

VP.Prodigy

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
JANTER · 19 games
74%
Axe
Axeoften banned
takizawa · 15 games
40%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
raregods · 15 games
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Serenada · 13 games
54%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunter
raregods · 11 games
55%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
cutie · 10 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
takizawa · 10 games
40%
Clinkz
Clinkzsignature
cutie · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
615 picks · 939 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 422 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
469 picks · 620 bans
58%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 959 bans
52%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
423 picks · 566 bans
49%
Warlock
Warlock
406 picks · 249 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
399 picks · 452 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 662 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 49%
Hero pool strength54% VP.Prodigy
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total51% VP.Prodigy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:46
alohasquad 50%VP.Prodigy 50%
The model gave 50% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 59:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerShigetsu
45% · 172 games47% · 81 game
Razorcutie
Razor
Invoker
Invokerспортик
55% · 64 games46% · 85 games
Brewmastertakizawa
Brewmaster
Mars
MarsCloud
46% · 208 games49% · 181 game
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterALOHADANCE
51% · 247 games54% · 153 games
Marciraregods
Marci
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorFishman
61% · 50 games52% · 241 game
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct10:33
alohasquad 48%VP.Prodigy 52%
The model gave 52% on VP.Prodigy — the game was taken by VP.Prodigy in 32:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterShigetsu
46% · 374 games54% · 344 games
Timbersawtakizawa
Timbersaw
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightспортик
45% · 364 games57% · 122 games
Clinkzcutie
Clinkz
Slardar
SlardarCloud
50% · 222 games49% · 363 games
Sand KingKatsura
Sand King
Ringmaster
RingmasterALOHADANCE
49% · 363 games49% · 645 games
Tinyraregods
Tiny
Jakiro
JakiroFishman
46% · 536 games55% · 385 games
Shadow ShamanJANTER
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteVP.Prodigy · 51%
Series resultVP.Prodigy 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2