CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
VValinorloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 11 games
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
Grimstroke
Aidar · 9 games
Valinor
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 9 games
Tusk
Stoic · 9 games
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Wuiter · 8 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 7 games
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 7 games
Phoenix
Jeezy · 7 games
Ringmaster
Jeezy · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
611 picks · 938 bans
Tusk
517 picks · 419 bans
Centaur Warrunner
472 picks · 618 bans
Dragon Knight
427 picks · 568 bans
Shadow Demon
426 picks · 955 bans
Warlock
403 picks · 250 bans
Tiny
399 picks · 451 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 661 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total52% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed23:36
Team Spirit Academy 50%Valinor 50%
The model gave 50% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Valinor in 33:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batriderrubikon155
MorphlingCoblackk
Earth Spirit86
SniperG.T.I
Razorkae
Faceless VoidWuiter
TuskAidar
PhoenixStoic
Iokyford
RingmasterJeezy
Game 2prediction correct29:12
Team Spirit Academy 51%Valinor 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 30:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonrubikon155
KunkkaWuiter
Puck86
Drow RangerCoblackk
Centaur Warrunnerkae
Ember SpiritG.T.I
LionAidar
Ogre MagiStoic
Warlockkyford
Shadow DemonJeezy
Game 3prediction correct23:12
Team Spirit Academy 53%Valinor 47%
The model gave 53% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Team Spirit Academy in 26:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddonrubikon155
LunaCoblackk
Brewmasterkae
MarsWuiter
Rubick86
PangolierG.T.I
TechiesAidar
DisruptorStoic
Warlockkyford
RingmasterJeezy
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 52%
Series resultTeam Spirit Academy 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3