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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
22%78%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 26 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%

Creepwave

Razor
Razorsignature
Crystallis · 16 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Kataomi · 15 games
73%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 12 games
58%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 11 games
36%
Invoker
Invokersignature
bzm · 11 games
73%
Io
Iosignature
Chuvash · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
266 picks · 327 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 377 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
247 picks · 573 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
227 picks · 102 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
227 picks · 247 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 458 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
216 picks · 269 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
212 picks · 135 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)41% vs 66%
Hero pool strength57% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total78% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:38
Nemiga Gaming 34%Creepwave 66%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 43:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
GyrocopterKiritych
40% · 117 games58% · 84 games
Dark SeerTobi
Dark Seer
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightAinkrad
48% · 124 gameslittle data
HuskarCrystallis
Huskar
Beastmaster
BeastmasterTheChosenOne
57% · 96 games45% · 142 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
59% · 143 games49% · 169 games
SnapfireKataomi
Snapfire
Io
IoHeaven
51% · 76 games46% · 161 game
AbaddonFishman
Abaddon
Game 2prediction correct11:39
Nemiga Gaming 32%Creepwave 68%
The model gave 68% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
48% · 89 games57% · 207 games
Monkey KingCrystallis
Monkey King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainAinkrad
45% · 100 games40% · 166 games
Storm SpiritStormstormer
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
54% · 368 games49% · 216 games
TidehunterTobi
Tidehunter
Enchantress
EnchantressHeaven
50% · 137 games55% · 91 game
WeaverKataomi
Weaver
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
57% · 177 games45% · 191 game
AbaddonFishman
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct30:34
Nemiga Gaming 31%Creepwave 69%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 46:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
49% · 93 games54% · 107 games
Templar AssassinStormstormer
Templar Assassin
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
47% · 129 games48% · 137 games
Wraith KingCrystallis
Wraith King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerTheChosenOne
53% · 97 games47% · 43 games
LycanTobi
Lycan
Clockwerk
ClockwerkHeaven
41% · 98 games53% · 73 games
WeaverKataomi
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
52% · 90 games54% · 147 games
SnapfireFishman
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 78%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3