?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Brameloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoMarciwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axe
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
56%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
13%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
38%
Weaver
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
100%

NoMarci

Mars
Marsoften banned
Noticed · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
forcemajor · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 5 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
0%
Bane
Bane
SoNNeikO · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
265 picks · 325 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
261 picks · 377 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
248 picks · 571 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
228 picks · 248 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
227 picks · 102 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 455 bans
54%
Pangolier
Pangolier
216 picks · 272 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
212 picks · 135 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 45%
Hero pool strength56% Brame
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Brame 66%NoMarci 34%
The model gave 66% on Brame — the game was taken by NoMarci.
Game 2prediction missed17:50
Brame 60%NoMarci 40%
The model gave 60% on Brame — the game was taken by NoMarci in 46:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
51% · 168 games50% · 152 games
Wraith KingDaxak
Wraith King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritW1sh-
56% · 243 games46% · 216 games
Void SpiritDodren
Void Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
52% · 146 games46% · 266 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Doom
DoomCTOMAHEH1
50% · 108 games45% · 180 games
GrimstrokeSoNNeikO
Grimstroke
Abaddon
AbaddonSsaSpartan
48% · 266 games58% · 117 games
Shadow Demonforcemajor
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 66%
Series resultNoMarci 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2