Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Западная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
CHILLAXloss 1:2series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 1:2
IVYwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
CHILLAX
No games played over 6 months.
IVY
Invokeroften banned
Copy · 1 game
Marsoften banned
TheBloodySky · 1 game
Phantom Assassin
Lowskill · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
264 picks · 322 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 375 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 566 bans
Void Spirit
228 picks · 248 bans
Lion
225 picks · 102 bans
Lina
220 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 270 bans
Bane
211 picks · 133 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 60%
Hero pool strength55% IVY
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% CHILLAX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed18:37
CHILLAX 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 38:12.
Game 2prediction missed38:43
CHILLAX 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 50:05.
Game 3prediction missed17:47
CHILLAX 52%IVY 48%
The model gave 52% on CHILLAX — the game was taken by IVY in 30:43.
Model check result
Model favoriteCHILLAX · 52%
Series resultIVY 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 3