Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
23%77%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 25 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 23 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 13 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 11 games
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
262 picks · 321 bans
Tidehunter
260 picks · 374 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 562 bans
Void Spirit
229 picks · 246 bans
Lion
224 picks · 103 bans
Lina
219 picks · 453 bans
Pangolier
214 picks · 269 bans
Bane
211 picks · 129 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 52%
Hero pool strength54% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total77% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct5:20
B8 Esports 23%HellRaisers 77%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 24:40.
Game 2prediction correct10:18
B8 Esports 23%HellRaisers 77%
The model gave 77% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 21:39.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 77%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2