Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 0:2series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 0:2
HellRaiserswin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 33 games
Linasignature
hAze · 30 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 18 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
Batridersignature
hAze · 16 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
262 picks · 373 bans
Mars
261 picks · 320 bans
Monkey King
248 picks · 563 bans
Void Spirit
231 picks · 246 bans
Lion
225 picks · 105 bans
Lina
221 picks · 454 bans
Pangolier
213 picks · 269 bans
Bane
210 picks · 129 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)66% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total61% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:27
V-Gaming 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 26:45.
Game 2prediction missed8:35
V-Gaming 61%HellRaisers 39%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 30:40.
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 61%
Series resultHellRaisers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2