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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 1:2
series probability
38%62%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Khanwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
71%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 24 games
46%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 23 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 13 games
38%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 11 games
55%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
45%

Khan

Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 12 games
33%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
45%
Mars
Marssignature
pJonn · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
67%
Morphling
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 8 games
38%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
57%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
layme · 7 games
71%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 371 bans
48%
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 319 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
248 picks · 559 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
230 picks · 245 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
223 picks · 105 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
220 picks · 452 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
213 picks · 269 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 272 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 48%
Hero pool strength53% B8 Esports
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total62% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:47
B8 Esports 45%Khan 55%
The model gave 55% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 40:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassinv1olent-
54% · 127 games48% · 53 games
Svenlayme
Sven
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerActor
47% · 22 games48% · 110 games
Storm SpiritPikachu
Storm Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
49% · 353 games50% · 188 games
Marschshrct
Mars
Bane
Banevelheor
63% · 82 games41% · 126 games
Liongoddam
Lion
43% · 107 games
GrimstrokeAoharide
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed35:11
B8 Esports 44%Khan 56%
The model gave 56% on Khan — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 27:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
52% · 155 games45% · 38 games
Phantom Assassinlayme
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperDendi
49% · 101 game54% · 131 game
Tidehunterchshrct
Tidehunter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterActor
37% · 64 games51% · 76 games
Storm SpiritPikachu
Storm Spirit
Weaver
Weavervelheor
57% · 112 games49% · 138 games
Liongoddam
Lion
56% · 49 games
BaneAoharide
Bane
Game 3prediction correct12:39
B8 Esports 42%Khan 58%
The model gave 58% on Khan — the game was taken by Khan in 37:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusav1olent-
44% · 95 games60% · 166 games
Terrorbladelayme
Terrorblade
Mars
MarsActor
45% · 222 games50% · 191 game
Ember SpiritPikachu
Ember Spirit
Puck
PuckDendi
57% · 193 games47% · 67 games
Night Stalkerchshrct
Night Stalker
Enchantress
Enchantressvelheor
42% · 91 game58% · 117 games
Shadow Demongoddam
Shadow Demon
47% · 60 games
BaneAoharide
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 62%
Series resultKhan 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3