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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
67%33%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Kataomi · 14 games
71%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 10 games
30%
Io
Iosignature
Chuvash · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 317 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 372 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
248 picks · 557 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
229 picks · 244 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 105 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
220 picks · 453 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 269 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 272 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Creepwave
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total67% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:10
Creepwave 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 26:53.
Game 2prediction missed19:27
Creepwave 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on Creepwave — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 40:57.
Game 3prediction correct32:15
Creepwave 67%HellRaisers 33%
The model gave 67% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 31:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 67%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3