Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Khanloss 0:2series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Hydrawin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Khan
Batrideroften banned
pJonn · 11 games
Tidehunteroften banned
pJonn · 10 games
Marssignature
pJonn · 9 games
Tinysignature
Dodren · 9 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 7 games
Morphlingoften banned
layme · 7 games
Troll Warlordoften banned
layme · 7 games
Bane
antoha · 6 games
Hydra
Bane
Zayac · 4 games
Earth Spirit
Askold · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 4 games
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 4 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
260 picks · 318 bans
Tidehunter
259 picks · 372 bans
Monkey King
246 picks · 555 bans
Void Spirit
229 picks · 246 bans
Lion
226 picks · 106 bans
Lina
220 picks · 456 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 273 bans
Tiny
208 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength53% Khan
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total56% Khan
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed9:30
Khan 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on Khan — the game was taken by Hydra in 30:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladelayme
LeshracAskold
Queen of PainPikachu
SlarkKami
Tidehunterchshrct
BeastmasterBlizzy
Snapfiregoddam
ChenZayac
Winter WyvernAoharide
Monkey KingMuka
Game 2prediction missed6:16
Khan 53%Hydra 47%
The model gave 53% on Khan — the game was taken by Hydra in 26:19.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphlinglayme
LeshracAskold
Tidehunterchshrct
LifestealerKami
Void SpiritPikachu
Night StalkerBlizzy
Grimstrokegoddam
IoMuka
UndyingAoharide
DisruptorZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteKhan · 56%
Series resultHydra 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2