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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
66%34%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NoMarciwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 26 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 25 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%

NoMarci

Mars
Marsoften banned
Noticed · 7 games
57%
Snapfire
Snapfire
forcemajor · 5 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 4 games
50%
Lion
Lion
forcemajor · 3 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 317 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 373 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
245 picks · 555 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
227 picks · 246 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
225 picks · 106 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 456 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 275 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 275 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 40%
Hero pool strength51% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total66% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:34
Nemiga Gaming 55%NoMarci 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by NoMarci in 42:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Invoker
InvokerAinkrad
49% · 139 games52% · 108 games
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Nature's Prophet
Magnus
MagnusKiritych
59% · 78 games52% · 104 games
DoomNoticed
Doom
Timbersaw
TimbersawTheChosenOne
46% · 134 games44% · 263 games
Void SpiritDodren
Void Spirit
Lion
LionVANSKOR
44% · 227 games54% · 101 game
Weaverforcemajor
Weaver
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
50% · 175 games53% · 177 games
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed24:45
Nemiga Gaming 55%NoMarci 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by NoMarci in 41:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordKiritych
45% · 64 games55% · 79 games
SpectreDaxak
Spectre
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
46% · 213 games49% · 224 games
Earth SpiritDodren
Earth Spirit
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAinkrad
43% · 186 games61% · 67 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Silencer
SilencerVANSKOR
55% · 35 games53% · 104 games
Ioforcemajor
Io
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonHeaven
45% · 82 games55% · 106 games
BaneSoNNeikO
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 66%
Series resultNoMarci 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2