Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Bramewin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 12 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 11 games
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 12 games
Axe
SkyLark · 9 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 8 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Weaversignature
CTOMAHEH1 · 8 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
261 picks · 315 bans
Tidehunter
257 picks · 373 bans
Monkey King
245 picks · 553 bans
Void Spirit
226 picks · 246 bans
Lion
225 picks · 106 bans
Lina
220 picks · 455 bans
Pangolier
212 picks · 275 bans
Tiny
208 picks · 275 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 65%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total74% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:22
B8 Esports 36%Brame 64%
The model gave 64% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 25:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Chaos Knightv1olent-
Wraith KingNefrit
Queen of PainDendi
Dragon KnightW1sh-
TidehunterCorrupted
BeastmasterSkyLark
55% · 73 games
LinaCTOMAHEH1
60% · 68 games
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Game 2prediction correct7:27
B8 Esports 35%Brame 65%
The model gave 65% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 23:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusav1olent-
Templar AssassinW1sh-
Void SpiritDendi
Wraith KingNefrit
Spirit BreakerCorrupted
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
58% · 123 games
TidehunterCTOMAHEH1
58% · 52 games
BaneSsaSpartan
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 74%
Series resultBrame 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2