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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
68%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 28 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
hAze · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 16 games
56%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 18 games
56%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
76%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 16 games
63%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 13 games
69%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
92%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 317 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
257 picks · 372 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 553 bans
61%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
227 picks · 245 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
224 picks · 106 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 456 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
212 picks · 279 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total73% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:26
V-Gaming 63%Team Empire 37%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 35:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTA2000
44% · 99 games57% · 42 games
Shadow FiendShisui
Shadow Fiend
Invoker
InvokerhAze
53% · 85 games52% · 223 games
Monkey Kinglightless
Monkey King
Mars
Marslaise
44% · 195 games55% · 43 games
Vengeful SpiritGhostik
Vengeful Spirit
Lion
LionArrOw
47% · 163 games54% · 139 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Enigma
Enigmaantoha
48% · 40 games50% · 135 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct31:14
V-Gaming 63%Team Empire 37%
The model gave 63% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga SirenTA2000
44% · 17 games46% · 70 games
LycanGhostik
Lycan
Lina
LinahAze
56% · 117 games51% · 132 games
Monkey Kinglightless
Monkey King
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekerlaise
47% · 98 games44% · 13 games
PugnaShisui
Pugna
Lion
LionArrOw
55% · 168 games51% · 123 games
Earth Spirit[T]SA
Earth Spirit
Silencer
Silencerantoha
45% · 38 games48% · 100 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 3prediction correct49:22
V-Gaming 64%Team Empire 36%
The model gave 64% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 33:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainhAze
51% · 100 games42% · 75 games
Lunalightless
Luna
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
56% · 103 games48% · 94 games
Storm SpiritShisui
Storm Spirit
Venomancer
Venomancerlaise
42% · 47 games52% · 211 games
MarsGhostik
Mars
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritArrOw
53% · 208 games48% · 95 games
Shadow Demon[T]SA
Shadow Demon
Bane
Baneantoha
57% · 93 games45% · 76 games
Shadow ShamanKaori
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 73%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3