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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2
series probability
37%63%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

B8 Esports

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
64%
Lina
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
71%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 22 games
50%
Lycan
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
64%
Mirana
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
45%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladesignature
Yuma · 11 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Limitless · 11 games
45%

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 26 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 24 games
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 372 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 318 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 545 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
225 picks · 110 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
225 picks · 244 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 459 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
216 picks · 280 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 39%
Hero pool strength56% B8 Esports
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total63% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:48
B8 Esports 43%Nemiga Gaming 57%
The model gave 57% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 42:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingv1olent-
43% · 141 game50% · 321 game
MarsTheChosenOne
Mars
Void Spirit
Void SpiritDendi
49% · 285 games40% · 60 games
SlarkKiritych
Slark
Tidehunter
TidehunterBb3px
49% · 262 games59% · 193 games
Ember SpiritAinkrad
Ember Spirit
Elder Titan
Elder Titanvelheor
53% · 144 games56% · 139 games
EnchantressHeaven
Enchantress
50% · 119 games
DisruptorVANSKOR
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct30:35
B8 Esports 44%Nemiga Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 38:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunav1olent-
50% · 144 games50% · 78 games
LifestealerKiritych
Lifestealer
Puck
PuckDendi
51% · 315 games42% · 75 games
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
Legion Commander
Snapfire
Snapfirevelheor
53% · 204 games48% · 130 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
54% · 115 games51% · 96 games
IoHeaven
Io
49% · 399 games
LionVANSKOR
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 63%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2