Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
B8 Esportsloss 0:2series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 0:2
NNoMarciwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
B8 Esports
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 24 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Dendi · 21 game
Lycansignature
Limitless · 11 games
Mirana
Davai · 11 games
Lunasignature
Watson · 10 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
[T]SA · 10 games
NoMarci
Marsoften banned
Noticed · 5 games
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
Ember Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
Lion
forcemajor · 3 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
Rubick
forcemajor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
260 picks · 320 bans
Tidehunter
258 picks · 379 bans
Monkey King
244 picks · 545 bans
Lion
229 picks · 113 bans
Void Spirit
225 picks · 246 bans
Lina
224 picks · 461 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 286 bans
Tiny
210 picks · 278 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 25%
Hero pool strength61% B8 Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% B8 Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:46
B8 Esports 59%NoMarci 41%
The model gave 59% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by NoMarci in 33:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
KunkkaDendi
MarsNoticed
Morphlingv1olent-
UrsaDaxak
TidehunterCloud
Void SpiritDodren
Snapfirevelheor
EnchantressSoNNeikO
50% · 97 games
Dark WillowRodjER
Game 2prediction missed34:44
B8 Esports 61%NoMarci 39%
The model gave 61% on B8 Esports — the game was taken by NoMarci in 1:10:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladev1olent-
Drow RangerDaxak
Void SpiritDendi
Ember SpiritDodren
TidehunterCloud
MagnusNoticed
Weavervelheor
SnapfireRodjER
52% · 104 games
BaneSoNNeikO
Model check result
Model favoriteB8 Esports · 69%
Series resultNoMarci 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2