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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Bane
Bane
Zayac · 4 games
75%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
0%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
0%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 2 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Askold · 2 games
100%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
0%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 17 games
76%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 14 games
71%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 12 games
75%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
91%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 320 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
257 picks · 380 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
244 picks · 542 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 115 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 246 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
223 picks · 464 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
219 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 278 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 44%
Hero pool strength64% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total56% Team Empire
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed26:17
Hydra 48%Team Empire 52%
The model gave 52% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Hydra in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeKami
58% · 109 games47% · 36 games
Naga Sirenlightless
Naga Siren
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
52% · 151 game41% · 82 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Beastmaster
BeastmasterBlizzy
56% · 122 games46% · 244 games
MarsGhostik
Mars
Weaver
WeaverMuka
56% · 88 games48% · 74 games
Dark Willow[T]SA
Dark Willow
Chen
ChenZayac
42% · 16 games48% · 50 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Game 2prediction correct25:35
Hydra 46%Team Empire 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Team Empire in 34:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaKami
50% · 146 games48% · 115 games
Medusalightless
Medusa
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
50% · 176 games53% · 80 games
KunkkaWorick
Kunkka
Enigma
EnigmaBlizzy
37% · 55 games49% · 203 games
MarsGhostik
Mars
Weaver
WeaverMuka
53% · 117 games51% · 89 games
Snapfire[T]SA
Snapfire
Silencer
SilencerZayac
60% · 58 games46% · 65 games
BaneKaori
Bane
Game 3prediction missed16:20
Hydra 45%Team Empire 55%
The model gave 55% on Team Empire — the game was taken by Hydra in 37:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
48% · 92 games51% · 123 games
Lunalightless
Luna
Dark Seer
Dark SeerBlizzy
48% · 70 games55% · 51 game
SlardarGhostik
Slardar
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAskold
53% · 132 games47% · 164 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Elder Titan
Elder TitanMuka
54% · 138 games47% · 70 games
WeaverKaori
Weaver
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernZayac
52% · 101 game45% · 125 games
Io[T]SA
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Empire · 56%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3