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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO5
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 3:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Khezcute · 16 games
69%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 15 games
67%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 14 games
79%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Khezcute · 12 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 14 games
64%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 9 games
67%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Boomy · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Boomy · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 319 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
257 picks · 379 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 541 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 112 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
225 picks · 246 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 463 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 278 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 43%
Hero pool strength55% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total78% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct24:13
BOOM Esports 68%Polaris Esports 32%
The model gave 68% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 27:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaYopaj
52% · 140 games45% · 19 games
Naga SirenNatsumi
Naga Siren
Timbersaw
TimbersawFbz
54% · 96 games43% · 198 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Razor
RazorMushi
59% · 56 games39% · 78 games
Legion CommanderForce
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressTims
60% · 100 games45% · 59 games
UndyingBoomy
Undying
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinSkem
62% · 150 games42% · 188 games
Snapfirecml
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct64:42
BOOM Esports 65%Polaris Esports 35%
The model gave 65% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 1:02:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireYopaj
50% · 215 games44% · 98 games
BatriderMac
Batrider
Spectre
SpectreMushi
54% · 85 games48% · 155 games
MorphlingNatsumi
Morphling
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
51% · 240 games55% · 107 games
Dark WillowBoomy
Dark Willow
Rubick
RubickTims
56% · 204 games44% · 335 games
MarsForce
Mars
Clockwerk
ClockwerkSkem
46% · 219 games54% · 268 games
Nyx Assassincml
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct37:24
BOOM Esports 66%Polaris Esports 34%
The model gave 66% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 37:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorMushi
61% · 92 games52% · 162 games
Monkey KingMac
Monkey King
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritYopaj
53% · 202 games42% · 248 games
Void SpiritNatsumi
Void Spirit
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
47% · 238 games40% · 105 games
SnapfireBoomy
Snapfire
Windranger
WindrangerTims
53% · 86 games50% · 53 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Bane
BaneSkem
61% · 90 games43% · 140 games
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 78%
Series resultBOOM Esports 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3