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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 28 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 14 games
71%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
54%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 12 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 11 games
73%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 13 games
62%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 8 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Boomy · 8 games
63%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
cml · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 319 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 379 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 540 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
231 picks · 114 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 245 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 469 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 286 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 278 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 41%
Hero pool strength55% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head3 – 0
Model total68% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:27
Motivate.Trust Gaming 58%Polaris Esports 42%
The model gave 58% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingJaCkky
47% · 159 games47% · 48 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Lina
LinaFearless
54% · 197 games56% · 88 games
Dragon KnightMac
Dragon Knight
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerQ
45% · 13 games53% · 37 games
MagnusForce
Magnus
Silencer
Silencerboombell
41% · 23 games47% · 130 games
Lioncml
Lion
54% · 89 games
Nyx AssassinBoomy
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction missed14:39
Motivate.Trust Gaming 60%Polaris Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 24:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireFearless
49% · 172 games53% · 138 games
Wraith KingNatsumi
Wraith King
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidJaCkky
54% · 98 games50% · 123 games
Ember SpiritMac
Ember Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritQ
53% · 222 games50% · 129 games
TuskForce
Tusk
Enchantress
Enchantressboombell
51% · 144 games43% · 61 game
WeaverBoomy
Weaver
43% · 185 games
Grimstrokecml
Grimstroke
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 68%
Series resultPolaris Esports 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2