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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Empireloss 1:2
series probability
19%81%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Creepwavewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 14 games
57%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 13 games
77%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 11 games
82%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razorsignature
ATF · 13 games
62%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 11 games
82%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Io
Iosignature
Chuvash · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 9 games
22%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 319 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
259 picks · 378 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 538 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
232 picks · 116 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
225 picks · 246 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)46% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Team Empire
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:34
Team Empire 31%Creepwave 69%
The model gave 69% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Team Empire in 33:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
Medusalightless
50% · 120 games60% · 72 games
RazorCrystallis
Razor
Invoker
InvokerWorick
44% · 117 games44% · 46 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderGhostik
40% · 61 game57% · 136 games
SnapfireKataomi
Snapfire
Weaver
WeaverKaori
48% · 72 games51% · 131 game
Nyx AssassinTobi
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
Disruptor[T]SA
47% · 86 games55% · 71 game
Ogre MagiFishman
Ogre Magi
Game 2prediction correct19:36
Team Empire 34%Creepwave 66%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunalightless
51% · 103 games52% · 132 games
InvokerStormstormer
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritWorick
45% · 189 games39% · 133 games
Wraith KingCrystallis
Wraith King
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritGhostik
49% · 38 games53% · 94 games
Sand KingTobi
Sand King
Disruptor
DisruptorKaori
57% · 89 games55% · 104 games
BaneKataomi
Bane
Io
Io[T]SA
52% · 86 games44% · 42 games
SilencerFishman
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct8:21
Team Empire 34%Creepwave 66%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 22:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
Kunkkalightless
48% · 65 games45% · 35 games
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Invoker
InvokerWorick
48% · 95 games48% · 125 games
LunaCrystallis
Luna
Slardar
SlardarGhostik
53% · 39 games46% · 63 games
LycanTobi
Lycan
Mirana
Mirana[T]SA
52% · 104 games46% · 130 games
SnapfireKataomi
Snapfire
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernKaori
61% · 97 games54% · 47 games
Ogre MagiFishman
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 81%
Series resultCreepwave 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3