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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Hydrawin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoMarciloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Hydra

Snapfire
Snapfire
Muka · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 3 games
0%
Bane
Bane
Zayac · 2 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Zayac · 2 games
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 2 games
50%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 2 games
0%

NoMarci

Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 4 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 4 games
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daxak · 3 games
67%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 3 games
33%
Snapfire
Snapfire
forcemajor · 3 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 2 games
100%
Lion
Lion
forcemajor · 2 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Noticed · 2 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
258 picks · 378 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 318 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
242 picks · 533 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 116 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
223 picks · 245 bans
51%
Lina
Lina
222 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 287 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 29%
Hero pool strength55% NoMarci
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:50
Hydra 52%NoMarci 48%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by NoMarci in 40:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenKami
42% · 72 games49% · 338 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Void Spirit
Void SpiritAskold
48% · 248 games44% · 95 games
SpectreDaxak
Spectre
Magnus
MagnusBlizzy
60% · 111 games48% · 171 game
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Winter Wyvern
Winter WyvernMuka
59% · 112 games48% · 165 games
Elder TitanSoNNeikO
Elder Titan
Lion
LionZayac
52% · 264 games50% · 38 games
Skywrath MageRodjER
Skywrath Mage
Game 2prediction correct31:26
Hydra 52%NoMarci 48%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 49:39.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKami
51% · 104 games46% · 94 games
LunaDaxak
Luna
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
53% · 211 games53% · 123 games
Ember SpiritDodren
Ember Spirit
Night Stalker
Night StalkerBlizzy
45% · 93 games52% · 238 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Mirana
MiranaMuka
52% · 248 games52% · 120 games
AbaddonSoNNeikO
Abaddon
Bane
BaneZayac
53% · 94 games41% · 175 games
LionRodjER
Lion
Game 3prediction correct33:29
Hydra 51%NoMarci 49%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 47:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
MorphlingKami
41% · 154 games56% · 70 games
Nature's ProphetDaxak
Nature's Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAskold
50% · 219 games57% · 217 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Underlord
UnderlordBlizzy
45% · 48 games50% · 121 game
Ember SpiritDodren
Ember Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowMuka
45% · 99 games51% · 93 games
Shadow ShamanRodjER
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneZayac
49% · 78 games56% · 97 games
AbaddonSoNNeikO
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultHydra 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3