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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Brameloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 22 games
41%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
60%

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
SkyLark · 11 games
73%
Axe
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 9 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 8 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 8 games
25%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 318 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 384 bans
50%
Monkey King
Monkey King
241 picks · 528 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
228 picks · 120 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
226 picks · 465 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
221 picks · 244 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 288 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
210 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 60%
Hero pool strength51% Brame
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total59% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:24
Nemiga Gaming 47%Brame 53%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 35:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Lancer
Phantom LancerKiritych
53% · 81 game49% · 127 games
TerrorbladeNefrit
Terrorblade
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful SpiritTheChosenOne
44% · 23 games57% · 3 games
TinkerW1sh-
Tinker
Monkey King
Monkey KingHeaven
52% · 134 games43% · 290 games
MarsSkyLark
Mars
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinVANSKOR
63% · 143 games42% · 63 games
UndyingSsaSpartan
Undying
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritAinkrad
56% · 119 games52% · 17 games
PugnaCTOMAHEH1
Pugna
Game 2prediction correct25:42
Nemiga Gaming 43%Brame 57%
The model gave 57% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 34:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinKiritych
44% · 76 games51% · 155 games
Wraith KingNefrit
Wraith King
Pangolier
PangolierAinkrad
40% · 102 games58% · 57 games
RazorW1sh-
Razor
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
46% · 239 games64% · 156 games
BeastmasterSkyLark
Beastmaster
Chen
ChenVANSKOR
56% · 14 games48% · 58 games
DoomCTOMAHEH1
Doom
Weaver
WeaverHeaven
48% · 80 games53% · 85 games
DisruptorSsaSpartan
Disruptor
Game 3prediction missed32:14
Nemiga Gaming 44%Brame 56%
The model gave 56% on Brame — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 30:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKiritych
51% · 95 games50% · 119 games
LunaNefrit
Luna
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritAinkrad
48% · 182 games50% · 192 games
Void SpiritW1sh-
Void Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawTheChosenOne
47% · 216 games53% · 141 game
TidehunterSkyLark
Tidehunter
Io
IoHeaven
46% · 134 games50% · 85 games
Winter WyvernSsaSpartan
Winter Wyvern
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
58% · 102 games47% · 192 games
LionCTOMAHEH1
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 59%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3