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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Polaris Esportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Yangon Galacticos

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 8 games
50%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
40%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
50%
Spectre
Spectreoften banned
Ksh · 4 games
75%
Clinkz
Clinkzoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
33%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
33%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
67%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 11 games
64%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Force · 8 games
63%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
cml · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 315 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
253 picks · 383 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
240 picks · 524 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
227 picks · 120 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
226 picks · 463 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
220 picks · 243 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 287 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
210 picks · 280 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)32% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total56% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:11
Yangon Galacticos 47%Polaris Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 38:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaYoung PH
44% · 90 games45% · 56 games
Storm SpiritMac
Storm Spirit
Monkey King
Monkey KingKsh
50% · 193 games42% · 48 games
UrsaNatsumi
Ursa
62% · 54 games
BeastmasterForce
Beastmaster
60% · 43 games
Nature's ProphetBoomy
Nature's Prophet
56% · 82 games
Lioncml
Lion
Game 2prediction correct26:52
Yangon Galacticos 48%Polaris Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 43:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaKsh
48% · 149 games53% · 58 games
Troll WarlordNatsumi
Troll Warlord
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritYoung PH
46% · 145 games45% · 30 games
DoomMac
Doom
52% · 64 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
55% · 73 games
GrimstrokeBoomy
Grimstroke
62% · 69 games
Nyx Assassincml
Nyx Assassin
Game 3prediction correct16:39
Yangon Galacticos 47%Polaris Esports 53%
The model gave 53% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:56.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerKsh
52% · 62 games43% · 35 games
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYoung PH
50% · 254 games51% · 34 games
EnigmaForce
Enigma
55% · 95 games
Ember SpiritNatsumi
Ember Spirit
48% · 58 games
Snapfirecml
Snapfire
46% · 94 games
PangolierBoomy
Pangolier
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 56%
Series resultPolaris Esports 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3