BTS Pro Series Season 9. Америка · BO3
result vs predictionXXxXxXXxloss 1:2
series probability
27%73%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Thunder Awakenwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
XxXxXXx
Ogre Magi
Mjz · 3 games
Iooften banned
MoOz · 2 games
Silenceroften banned
MoOz · 2 games
Snapfire
MoOz · 2 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 2 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Mnz · 2 games
Anti-Mageoften banned
Mnz · 1 game
Bane
Mjz · 1 game
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 15 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 8 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Mnz · 5 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 4 games
Iooften banned
Matthew · 4 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
258 picks · 314 bans
Tidehunter
253 picks · 383 bans
Monkey King
240 picks · 525 bans
Lion
229 picks · 124 bans
Lina
226 picks · 465 bans
Void Spirit
222 picks · 243 bans
Pangolier
218 picks · 288 bans
Tiny
209 picks · 280 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 22%
Hero pool strength63% XxXxXXx
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total73% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct38:57
XxXxXXx 40%Thunder Awaken 60%
The model gave 60% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 53:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautMnz
BatriderDarkMago
LeshracLeostyle
RazorPakazs
VenomancerFrank
TidehunterOscar
IoMoOz
SnapfireMatthew
Ogre MagiMjz
DisruptorPanda
Game 2prediction missed43:26
XxXxXXx 38%Thunder Awaken 62%
The model gave 62% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by XxXxXXx in 52:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LeshracLeostyle
BloodseekerPakazs
SlarkMnz
InvokerDarkMago
Legion CommanderFrank
TidehunterOscar
IoMoOz
LichPanda
TuskMjz
Nyx AssassinMatthew
Game 3prediction correct25:29
XxXxXXx 41%Thunder Awaken 59%
The model gave 59% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 37:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UrsaMnz
TerrorbladePakazs
PangolierLeostyle
Centaur WarrunnerOscar
MagnusFrank
TinyDarkMago
SilencerMoOz
RubickMatthew
ViperMjz
Ogre MagiPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 73%
Series resultThunder Awaken 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3