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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
58%42%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 21 game
38%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 18 games
44%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 16 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
60%

Hydra

Bane
Bane
Zayac · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
100%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Muka · 1 game
0%
Dazzle
Dazzle
Zayac · 1 game
0%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Zayac · 1 game
0%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Zayac · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
255 picks · 312 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 379 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
241 picks · 519 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
229 picks · 126 bans
54%
Lina
Lina
225 picks · 472 bans
55%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
220 picks · 241 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
217 picks · 285 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
210 picks · 281 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)36% vs 50%
Hero pool strength50% Nemiga Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:7
Nemiga Gaming 54%Hydra 46%
The model gave 54% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 26:00.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkKiritych
48% · 62 games49% · 73 games
Phantom AssassinKami
Phantom Assassin
Viper
ViperAinkrad
47% · 103 games51% · 241 game
TidehunterBlizzy
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
48% · 343 games57% · 134 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkHeaven
45% · 121 game54% · 137 games
EnchantressZayac
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
43% · 107 games57% · 151 game
SnapfireMuka
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct33:10
Nemiga Gaming 55%Hydra 45%
The model gave 55% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 32:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
42% · 71 game25% · 16 games
Drow RangerKami
Drow Ranger
Windranger
WindrangerAinkrad
47% · 58 games47% · 137 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Slardar
SlardarTheChosenOne
56% · 47 games58% · 148 games
TidehunterBlizzy
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireHeaven
55% · 127 games51% · 72 games
WeaverMuka
Weaver
Disruptor
DisruptorVANSKOR
43% · 115 games59% · 45 games
Ogre MagiZayac
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 58%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2