BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Motivate.Trust Gamingwin 2:1series probability
77%23%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Yangon Galacticosloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Motivate.Trust Gaming
Lionsignature
Q · 25 games
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 13 games
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 11 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
Yangon Galacticos
Ember Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 7 games
Terrorbladeoften banned
Ksh · 5 games
Kunkkaoften banned
Young PH · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Spectreoften banned
Ksh · 3 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Young PH · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
255 picks · 310 bans
Tidehunter
251 picks · 376 bans
Monkey King
240 picks · 517 bans
Lion
226 picks · 126 bans
Lina
225 picks · 470 bans
Void Spirit
219 picks · 241 bans
Pangolier
217 picks · 285 bans
Tiny
210 picks · 281 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)54% vs 33%
Hero pool strength58% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total77% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:15
Motivate.Trust Gaming 65%Yangon Galacticos 35%
The model gave 65% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 33:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
SpectreKsh
Ember SpiritFearless
PuckYoung PH
PhoenixQ
Lionboombell
Game 2prediction missed32:51
Motivate.Trust Gaming 65%Yangon Galacticos 35%
The model gave 65% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Yangon Galacticos in 46:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeJaCkky
Monkey KingKsh
Storm SpiritFearless
Queen of PainYoung PH
UndyingQ
Lionboombell
Game 3prediction correct37:13
Motivate.Trust Gaming 67%Yangon Galacticos 33%
The model gave 67% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 28:41.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MedusaJaCkky
Anti-MageKsh
Void SpiritFearless
Ember SpiritYoung PH
UndyingQ
Lionboombell
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 77%
Series resultMotivate.Trust Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3