?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoMarciloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 12 games
58%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 10 games
80%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 9 games
67%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 8 games
25%

NoMarci

Disruptor
Disruptor
SoNNeikO · 2 games
0%
Rubick
Rubick
forcemajor · 2 games
50%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Noticed · 2 games
0%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
SoNNeikO · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
Noticed · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Daxak · 1 game
0%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Daxak · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 311 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
253 picks · 377 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
236 picks · 515 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
228 picks · 125 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
226 picks · 470 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
219 picks · 284 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 241 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 283 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 40%
Hero pool strength58% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:29
Creepwave 72%NoMarci 28%
The model gave 72% on Creepwave — the game was taken by NoMarci in 36:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerCrystallis
48% · 118 games57% · 111 games
Monkey KingDaxak
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderStormstormer
47% · 163 games54% · 94 games
Ember SpiritDodren
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanTobi
42% · 116 games49% · 178 games
MarsNoticed
Mars
Disruptor
DisruptorFishman
46% · 129 games53% · 88 games
AbaddonSoNNeikO
Abaddon
Bane
BaneKataomi
58% · 91 game46% · 146 games
Lionforcemajor
Lion
Game 2prediction correct30:21
Creepwave 74%NoMarci 26%
The model gave 74% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 55:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
55% · 101 game54% · 120 games
Monkey KingDaxak
Monkey King
Lina
LinaStormstormer
51% · 213 games51% · 182 games
Void SpiritDodren
Void Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
46% · 85 games47% · 160 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Snapfire
SnapfireFishman
50% · 151 game51% · 126 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverKataomi
49% · 143 games47% · 105 games
OracleSoNNeikO
Oracle
Game 3prediction correct34:23
Creepwave 73%NoMarci 27%
The model gave 73% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 53:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Batrider
BatriderStormstormer
44% · 102 games49% · 51 game
TerrorbladeDaxak
Terrorblade
Razor
RazorCrystallis
53% · 67 games53% · 140 games
PuckDodren
Puck
Venomancer
VenomancerTobi
45% · 34 games51% · 33 games
SlardarNoticed
Slardar
Io
IoKataomi
46% · 107 games51% · 88 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiFishman
51% · 68 games56% · 66 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 88%
Series resultCreepwave 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3