Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:0series probability
43%57%
probability at match start · final 2:0
HellRaisersloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Brame
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 15 games
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Marssignature
SkyLark · 10 games
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 9 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
HellRaisers
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
253 picks · 376 bans
Mars
251 picks · 311 bans
Monkey King
235 picks · 515 bans
Lion
228 picks · 125 bans
Lina
225 picks · 470 bans
Pangolier
219 picks · 284 bans
Void Spirit
213 picks · 241 bans
Tiny
209 picks · 283 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 50%
Hero pool strength54% Brame
Head-to-head3 – 1
Model total57% HellRaisers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed24:24
Brame 43%HellRaisers 57%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 37:33.
Game 2prediction missed32:37
Brame 43%HellRaisers 57%
The model gave 57% on HellRaisers — the game was taken by Brame in 49:49.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellRaisers · 57%
Series resultBrame 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2