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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Army Geniusesloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 10 games
60%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Boomy · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 6 games
50%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Bane
Bane
cml · 4 games
50%

Army Geniuses

Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Lym- · 11 games
36%
Mirana
Mirana
Lym- · 11 games
36%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Lym- · 10 games
30%
Mars
Marsoften banned
woMy · 9 games
0%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
woMy · 9 games
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
MamangDaya · 7 games
14%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Lym- · 7 games
29%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
db- · 7 games
14%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
251 picks · 315 bans
48%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 376 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 518 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
228 picks · 126 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
225 picks · 471 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 285 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 243 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 284 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)33% vs 21%
Hero pool strength60% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total65% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct41:24
Polaris Esports 60%Army Geniuses 40%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 54:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Monkey King
Monkey KingNatsumi
48% · 128 games58% · 147 games
Nature's Prophetdb-
Nature's Prophet
Death Prophet
Death ProphetMac
58% · 139 games48% · 199 games
Dragon KnightAzur4
Dragon Knight
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
49% · 173 games48% · 89 games
Legion CommanderwoMy
Legion Commander
Grimstroke
Grimstrokecml
44% · 178 games52% · 228 games
MiranaLym-
Mirana
Lion
LionBoomy
49% · 292 games44% · 247 games
SnapfireVarizh
Snapfire
Game 2prediction correct35:23
Polaris Esports 59%Army Geniuses 41%
The model gave 59% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 41:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
57% · 109 games51% · 178 games
Monkey Kingdb-
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderMac
51% · 145 games49% · 141 game
Storm SpiritAzur4
Storm Spirit
Rubick
RubickBoomy
44% · 154 games47% · 207 games
TidehunterwoMy
Tidehunter
Mars
MarsForce
54% · 371 game47% · 68 games
WindrangerLym-
Windranger
Undying
Undyingcml
49% · 73 games51% · 258 games
LionVarizh
Lion
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 65%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2