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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
56%44%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Team Empirewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nemiga Gaming

Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 20 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 18 games
44%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
47%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Ainkrad · 15 games
60%
Sven
Svensignature
Kiritych · 15 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Ainkrad · 15 games
53%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
253 picks · 374 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
252 picks · 314 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 515 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
230 picks · 126 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
225 picks · 474 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 283 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 243 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 284 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 48%
Hero pool strength59% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 4
Model total56% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed39:34
Nemiga Gaming 51%Team Empire 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 51:50.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
41% · 58 games46% · 94 games
Lunalightless
Luna
Batrider
BatriderAinkrad
41% · 102 games40% · 30 games
Outworld DestroyerWorick
Outworld Destroyer
Legion Commander
Legion CommanderTheChosenOne
46% · 69 games66% · 120 games
BeastmasterGhostik
Beastmaster
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVANSKOR
49% · 135 games54% · 116 games
Rubick[T]SA
Rubick
Weaver
WeaverHeaven
52% · 82 games54% · 86 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 2prediction correct29:29
Nemiga Gaming 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 47:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaKiritych
49% · 77 games50% · 25 games
Drow Rangerlightless
Drow Ranger
Lycan
LycanTheChosenOne
44% · 87 games48% · 202 games
MarsGhostik
Mars
Razor
RazorAinkrad
56% · 71 game55% · 139 games
TinyWorick
Tiny
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinHeaven
53% · 243 games42% · 80 games
Shadow Shaman[T]SA
Shadow Shaman
Bane
BaneVANSKOR
48% · 44 games52% · 76 games
OracleKaori
Oracle
Game 3prediction missed21:42
Nemiga Gaming 51%Team Empire 49%
The model gave 51% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Team Empire in 46:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinaAinkrad
50% · 176 games48% · 148 games
Morphlinglightless
Morphling
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerKiritych
51% · 136 games50% · 99 games
Night StalkerGhostik
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsTheChosenOne
50% · 300 games49% · 314 games
Void SpiritWorick
Void Spirit
Dark Willow
Dark WillowHeaven
50% · 97 games49% · 148 games
Winter WyvernKaori
Winter Wyvern
Phoenix
PhoenixVANSKOR
49% · 244 games53% · 244 games
Mirana[T]SA
Mirana
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 56%
Series resultTeam Empire 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3