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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO3
result vs prediction
Neon Esportswin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Execrationloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 23 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 15 games
67%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 13 games
77%

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 20 games
55%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 16 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 14 games
64%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 11 games
45%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 314 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 376 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 512 bans
62%
Lion
Lion
232 picks · 126 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
226 picks · 476 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 285 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 244 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
209 picks · 284 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)37% vs 26%
Hero pool strength50% Neon Esports
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total54% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct43:21
Neon Esports 51%Execration 49%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 51:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
52% · 43 games47% · 140 games
MedusaMarb
Medusa
Tidehunter
TidehunterEnryu
50% · 235 games51% · 169 games
LinaBob
Lina
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
51% · 197 games51% · 253 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
55% · 192 games43% · 105 games
ClockwerkRR
Clockwerk
Game 2prediction missed10:47
Neon Esports 53%Execration 47%
The model gave 53% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 30:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Medusa
MedusaPalos
56% · 79 games40% · 49 games
Phantom AssassinMarb
Phantom Assassin
Tidehunter
TidehunterEnryu
45% · 154 games51% · 80 games
BatriderBob
Batrider
Windranger
WindrangerMamangDaya
55% · 50 games53% · 223 games
MarsTino-
Mars
Leshrac
LeshracNARMAN
52% · 117 games47% · 48 games
UndyingRR
Undying
Game 3prediction correct42:21
Neon Esports 54%Execration 46%
The model gave 54% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 48:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladePalos
59% · 56 games46% · 34 games
SpectreMarb
Spectre
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainMamangDaya
36% · 14 games78% · 5 games
TinkerBob
Tinker
Dark Seer
Dark SeerEnryu
53% · 29 games44% · 36 games
MagnusTino-
Magnus
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritNARMAN
48% · 77 games51% · 101 game
OracleRR
Oracle
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 54%
Series resultNeon Esports 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3