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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Creepwavewin 2:0
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Creepwave

Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Crystallis · 9 games
67%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 9 games
67%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 9 games
78%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 8 games
25%

Hydra

Bane
Bane
Zayac · 1 game
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Blizzy · 1 game
0%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Zayac · 1 game
0%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Muka · 1 game
100%
Leshrac
Leshracoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Kami · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
257 picks · 318 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
251 picks · 378 bans
51%
Lion
Lion
236 picks · 131 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
233 picks · 513 bans
62%
Lina
Lina
230 picks · 482 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 292 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
213 picks · 247 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
211 picks · 284 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)59% vs 60%
Hero pool strength52% Creepwave
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:12
Creepwave 66%Hydra 34%
The model gave 66% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 32:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidCrystallis
48% · 109 games52% · 109 games
MedusaKami
Medusa
Lycan
LycanTobi
46% · 121 game54% · 125 games
Void SpiritAskold
Void Spirit
Windranger
WindrangerStormstormer
51% · 82 games45% · 207 games
MarsBlizzy
Mars
Snapfire
SnapfireKataomi
49% · 232 games54% · 65 games
Dark WillowMuka
Dark Willow
Ogre Magi
Ogre MagiLeBronDota
48% · 71 game55% · 109 games
Elder TitanZayac
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Creepwave 67%Hydra 33%
The model gave 67% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 30:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
RazorCrystallis
57% · 66 games53% · 75 games
Wraith KingKami
Wraith King
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainStormstormer
37% · 43 games51% · 93 games
Ember SpiritAskold
Ember Spirit
Necrophos
NecrophosTobi
59% · 24 games54% · 128 games
TidehunterBlizzy
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierLeBronDota
50% · 146 games47% · 90 games
SnapfireMuka
Snapfire
Io
IoKataomi
45% · 107 gameslittle data
DazzleZayac
Dazzle
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 79%
Series resultCreepwave 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2