?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 2:1
NoMarciloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 30 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
hAze · 26 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
hAze · 15 games
73%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
laise · 15 games
60%

NoMarci

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 322 bans
49%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 379 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
238 picks · 134 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
232 picks · 511 bans
62%
Lina
Lina
230 picks · 491 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 297 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 249 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
211 picks · 285 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 50%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:16
V-Gaming 65%NoMarci 35%
The model gave 65% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 37:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenTA2000
48% · 89 games53% · 90 games
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Lina
LinahAze
48% · 160 games48% · 48 games
Troll WarlordDaxak
Troll Warlord
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderlaise
46% · 81 game43% · 139 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Weaver
WeaverArrOw
54% · 102 games52% · 124 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Omniknight
Omniknightantoha
51% · 52 games57% · 83 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed5:28
V-Gaming 68%NoMarci 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by NoMarci in 25:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusTA2000
55% · 74 games52% · 100 games
Monkey KingDaxak
Monkey King
Batrider
BatriderhAze
44% · 130 games40% · 109 games
Storm SpiritDodren
Storm Spirit
Night Stalker
Night Stalkerlaise
45% · 75 games51% · 71 game
BloodseekerNoticed
Bloodseeker
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonArrOw
59% · 153 games49% · 88 games
Rubickforcemajor
Rubick
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiantoha
56% · 49 games52% · 113 games
AbaddonSoNNeikO
Abaddon
Game 3prediction correct37:41
V-Gaming 68%NoMarci 32%
The model gave 68% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 1:05:28.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
SpectreTA2000
55% · 69 games46% · 96 games
LifestealerDaxak
Lifestealer
Lina
LinahAze
50% · 191 game48% · 226 games
Void SpiritDodren
Void Spirit
Mars
Marslaise
48% · 351 game50% · 203 games
TidehunterNoticed
Tidehunter
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageArrOw
49% · 32 games49% · 205 games
Snapfireforcemajor
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder Titanantoha
52% · 166 games53% · 79 games
DisruptorSoNNeikO
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 79%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3