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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
Bramewin 2:1
series probability
54%46%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Empireloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Brame

Lina
Linaoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 14 games
43%
Axe
Axesignature
SkyLark · 10 games
60%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
W1sh- · 10 games
40%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
CTOMAHEH1 · 9 games
33%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
SsaSpartan · 7 games
43%
Bane
Banesignature
SsaSpartan · 7 games
71%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
SkyLark · 7 games
71%
Magnus
Magnusoften banned
SkyLark · 7 games
14%

Team Empire

Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
sayuw · 27 games
67%
Invoker
Invokersignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
kiyotaka · 15 games
60%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
VANSKOR · 13 games
62%
Mars
Marssignature
Shachlo · 12 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
sayuw · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
VANSKOR · 11 games
64%
Luna
Lunasignature
Smiling Knight · 10 games
80%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 331 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 381 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
246 picks · 139 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
233 picks · 496 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
232 picks · 510 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 308 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 252 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
214 picks · 290 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 54%
Hero pool strength58% Team Empire
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total54% Brame
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:9
Brame 51%Team Empire 49%
The model gave 51% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 26:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNefrit
51% · 99 games41% · 15 games
Chaos Knightlightless
Chaos Knight
Beastmaster
BeastmasterSkyLark
61% · 115 games50% · 112 games
Storm SpiritWorick
Storm Spirit
Razor
RazorW1sh-
45% · 49 games49% · 128 games
TidehunterGhostik
Tidehunter
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanCTOMAHEH1
53% · 72 games44% · 74 games
Weaver[T]SA
Weaver
Undying
UndyingSsaSpartan
49% · 49 games48% · 55 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed26:46
Brame 53%Team Empire 47%
The model gave 53% on Brame — the game was taken by Team Empire in 48:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Tinker
TinkerW1sh-
59% · 9 games52% · 63 games
Spectrelightless
Spectre
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerNefrit
58% · 73 games41% · 62 games
Night StalkerGhostik
Night Stalker
Mars
MarsSkyLark
47% · 167 games54% · 78 games
BatriderWorick
Batrider
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerSsaSpartan
46% · 7 games55% · 70 games
DisruptorKaori
Disruptor
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeCTOMAHEH1
43% · 92 games50% · 75 games
Io[T]SA
Io
Game 3prediction correct33:17
Brame 52%Team Empire 48%
The model gave 52% on Brame — the game was taken by Brame in 37:23.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaNefrit
49% · 106 games49% · 157 games
Ember SpiritWorick
Ember Spirit
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetSkyLark
59% · 109 games50% · 195 games
Monkey Kinglightless
Monkey King
Windranger
WindrangerW1sh-
50% · 70 games51% · 217 games
PangolierGhostik
Pangolier
Mars
MarsCTOMAHEH1
48% · 301 game46% · 83 games
UndyingKaori
Undying
Abaddon
AbaddonSsaSpartan
48% · 131 game51% · 65 games
Bane[T]SA
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteBrame · 54%
Series resultBrame 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3