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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Nigma Galaxy SEAloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Nigma Galaxy SEA

Lion
Lionsignature
Jhocam · 22 games
73%
Puck
Puckoften banned
AlaCrity · 17 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Meracle · 14 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Poloson · 12 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Jhocam · 11 games
73%
Leshrac
Leshracsignature
inYourdreaM · 11 games
73%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Poloson · 10 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Poloson · 10 games
40%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 25 games
76%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 13 games
54%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 13 games
77%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 333 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 383 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
246 picks · 138 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
233 picks · 499 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
232 picks · 509 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 308 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 253 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
214 picks · 290 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 58%
Hero pool strength52% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 4
Model total56% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:16
Nigma Galaxy SEA 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 35:48.
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 1