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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
84%16%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Hydrawin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 30 games
70%
Lina
Linaoften banned
hAze · 26 games
58%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 23 games
74%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
hAze · 15 games
73%
Invoker
Invokersignature
hAze · 15 games
60%

Hydra

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
261 picks · 332 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 382 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
246 picks · 138 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
235 picks · 499 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
231 picks · 507 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 308 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 252 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
214 picks · 291 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength61% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total84% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:8
V-Gaming 70%Hydra 30%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 30:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
51% · 88 games49% · 18 games
Naga SirenKami
Naga Siren
Storm Spirit
Storm SpirithAze
47% · 112 games51% · 82 games
DoomBlizzy
Doom
Slardar
Slardarlaise
55% · 60 games52% · 196 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Snapfire
SnapfireArrOw
49% · 179 games40% · 70 games
WeaverMuka
Weaver
Io
Ioantoha
57% · 86 games50% · 159 games
GrimstrokeZayac
Grimstroke
Game 2prediction missed6:15
V-Gaming 70%Hydra 30%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 22:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinhAze
51% · 102 games46% · 109 games
InvokerAskold
Invoker
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerTA2000
45% · 90 games61% · 86 games
BeastmasterBlizzy
Beastmaster
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
49% · 172 games42% · 82 games
UrsaKami
Ursa
Windranger
WindrangerArrOw
50% · 55 games52% · 117 games
Monkey KingMuka
Monkey King
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiantoha
55% · 42 games52% · 67 games
BaneZayac
Bane
Game 3prediction missed17:29
V-Gaming 73%Hydra 27%
The model gave 73% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Hydra in 42:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
LunaTA2000
52% · 127 games38% · 162 games
LeshracAskold
Leshrac
Razor
RazorhAze
63% · 120 games49% · 93 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Mars
Marslaise
53% · 272 games39% · 63 games
Night StalkerBlizzy
Night Stalker
Snapfire
SnapfireArrOw
59% · 184 games45% · 328 games
LionZayac
Lion
Ogre Magi
Ogre Magiantoha
58% · 39 games45% · 96 games
IoMuka
Io
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 84%
Series resultHydra 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3