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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Motivate.Trust Gamingloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 23 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 14 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 13 games
77%

Motivate.Trust Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
Q · 24 games
79%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Fearless · 13 games
77%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
Q · 12 games
58%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
JaCkky · 10 games
80%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Fearless · 10 games
50%
Medusa
Medusasignature
JaCkky · 10 games
60%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
LionaX · 9 games
67%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Q · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
260 picks · 331 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 380 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
245 picks · 138 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
234 picks · 499 bans
55%
Monkey King
Monkey King
230 picks · 506 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
222 picks · 308 bans
48%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
215 picks · 252 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
214 picks · 291 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)39% vs 60%
Hero pool strength54% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 2
Model total58% Motivate.Trust Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct17:35
Neon Esports 44%Motivate.Trust Gaming 56%
The model gave 56% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Motivate.Trust Gaming in 31:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Slark
SlarkPalos
45% · 32 games55% · 115 games
Wraith KingJaCkky
Wraith King
Beastmaster
BeastmasterEnryu
43% · 108 games57% · 118 games
InvokerFearless
Invoker
Void Spirit
Void SpiritMamangDaya
42% · 219 games56% · 132 games
Monkey KingQ
Monkey King
Snapfire
SnapfireNARMAN
46% · 128 games58% · 122 games
Enchantressboombell
Enchantress
Game 2prediction missed39:39
Neon Esports 45%Motivate.Trust Gaming 55%
The model gave 55% on Motivate.Trust Gaming — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 44:09.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomPalos
45% · 95 games56% · 192 games
LinaFearless
Lina
Mars
MarsEnryu
49% · 289 games54% · 120 games
UrsaJaCkky
Ursa
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightMamangDaya
44% · 193 games59% · 160 games
ClockwerkQ
Clockwerk
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeNARMAN
43% · 212 games48% · 317 games
Lionboombell
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteMotivate.Trust Gaming · 58%
Accuracy by game1 of 2