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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
BOOM Esportswin 2:0
series probability
81%19%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Polaris Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

BOOM Esports

Tiny
Tinysignature
Yopaj · 17 games
76%
Lion
Lionsignature
Khezcute · 15 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
Palos · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 13 games
54%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Tims · 13 games
62%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Tims · 12 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Khezcute · 12 games
50%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Palos · 11 games
73%

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lionsignature
cml · 9 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 7 games
57%
Silencer
Silenceroften banned
Boomy · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 7 games
57%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
Force · 5 games
40%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
259 picks · 331 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 382 bans
53%
Lion
Lion
245 picks · 138 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
235 picks · 498 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
229 picks · 506 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
220 picks · 308 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
215 picks · 291 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
214 picks · 251 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 35%
Hero pool strength58% BOOM Esports
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total81% BOOM Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct29:35
BOOM Esports 69%Polaris Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 43:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeSkem
55% · 109 games47% · 52 games
Drow RangerNatsumi
Drow Ranger
Void Spirit
Void SpiritYopaj
49% · 227 games43% · 71 game
KunkkaMac
Kunkka
Pangolier
PangolierFbz
50% · 188 games44% · 307 games
MarsForce
Mars
Enchantress
EnchantressTims
55% · 127 games47% · 142 games
ClockwerkBoomy
Clockwerk
62% · 79 games
Banecml
Bane
Game 2prediction correct30:32
BOOM Esports 69%Polaris Esports 31%
The model gave 69% on BOOM Esports — the game was taken by BOOM Esports in 44:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightYopaj
46% · 139 games48% · 96 games
Phantom AssassinNatsumi
Phantom Assassin
Monkey King
Monkey KingSkem
59% · 157 games33% · 33 games
Queen of PainBoomy
Queen of Pain
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFbz
60% · 109 games50% · 54 games
MagnusMac
Magnus
Enchantress
EnchantressTims
51% · 137 games40% · 146 games
PangolierForce
Pangolier
50% · 213 games
Lioncml
Lion
Model check result
Model favoriteBOOM Esports · 81%
Series resultBOOM Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2