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DreamLeague Division 2 Season 3 · BO5
result vs prediction
Aurora Gamingwin 3:0
series probability
82%18%
probability at match start · final 3:0
Nigma Galaxyloss 0:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Aurora Gaming

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Oli · 33 games
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Mira · 31 game
58%
Mars
Marssignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 31 game
65%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Mikoto · 27 games
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
Mira · 26 games
69%
Ursa
Ursasignature
Nightfall · 26 games
65%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
71%
Warlock
Warlocksignature
Kaori · 24 games
63%

Nigma Galaxy

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
OmaR · 25 games
52%
Muerta
Muerta
SumaiL · 23 games
48%
Mars
Marsoften banned
No!ob · 22 games
32%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
GH · 21 game
33%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
SumaiL · 20 games
55%
Dazzle
Dazzle
GH · 19 games
58%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
SumaiL · 18 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
SumaiL · 18 games
56%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
609 picks · 934 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 419 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 620 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 572 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 945 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
402 picks · 249 bans
47%
Tiny
Tiny
396 picks · 447 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 657 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)76% vs 52%
Hero pool strength59% Aurora Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total82% Aurora Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct42:14
Aurora Gaming 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 47:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
WindrangerNightfall
42% · 267 games63% · 86 games
Faceless Voidrincyq
Faceless Void
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritLorenof
43% · 393 games57% · 429 games
Centaur WarrunnerNo!ob
Centaur Warrunner
Mars
MarsWs
43% · 355 games51% · 284 games
SlardarSumaiL
Slardar
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
43% · 308 games51% · 626 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Phoenix
PhoenixKaori
43% · 189 games65% · 87 games
Nyx AssassinOmaR
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct34:27
Aurora Gaming 72%Nigma Galaxy 28%
The model gave 72% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 38:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperLorenof
47% · 83 games47% · 102 games
Svenrincyq
Sven
Razor
RazorNightfall
51% · 66 games54% · 88 games
ViperSumaiL
Viper
Brewmaster
BrewmasterWs
46% · 90 games47% · 197 games
MarsNo!ob
Mars
Jakiro
JakiroKaori
51% · 562 games50% · 314 games
WarlockGH
Warlock
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinMira
60% · 74 games49% · 174 games
HoodwinkOmaR
Hoodwink
Game 3prediction correct26:20
Aurora Gaming 69%Nigma Galaxy 31%
The model gave 69% on Aurora Gaming — the game was taken by Aurora Gaming in 37:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sven
SvenNightfall
46% · 187 games54% · 116 games
LycanNo!ob
Lycan
Razor
RazorLorenof
48% · 82 games51% · 203 games
Monkey Kingrincyq
Monkey King
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerWs
51% · 390 games55% · 330 games
Ember SpiritSumaiL
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkMira
48% · 290 games47% · 594 games
JakiroGH
Jakiro
Warlock
WarlockKaori
46% · 529 games53% · 235 games
Shadow ShamanOmaR
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteAurora Gaming · 82%
Series resultAurora Gaming 3:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 3