?
arrow_backBack to match
EPL Masters I · BO3
result vs prediction
Team Syntaxwin 2:1
series probability
50%50%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Nemiga Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Team Syntax

Tusk
Tusksignature
Stoic · 7 games
71%
Axe
Axeoften banned
emptiness · 4 games
75%
Largo
Largooften banned
Jeezy · 4 games
75%
Dark Seer
Dark Seeroften banned
emptiness · 3 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Jeezy · 3 games
33%
Bane
Bane
Stoic · 2 games
50%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
emptiness · 2 games
100%
Clockwerk
Clockwerkoften banned
Stoic · 2 games
50%

Nemiga Gaming

Hoodwink
Hoodwink
ariel · 22 games
55%
Jakiro
Jakiro
VaniLLl · 21 game
38%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Covisnine · 21 game
33%
Phoenix
Phoenix
VaniLLl · 19 games
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
young G · 18 games
39%
Rubick
Rubick
ariel · 16 games
50%
Techies
Techies
ariel · 16 games
50%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Covisnine · 15 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
495 picks · 358 bans
53%
Rubick
Rubick
381 picks · 227 bans
46%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
345 picks · 643 bans
55%
Tiny
Tiny
338 picks · 345 bans
49%
Windranger
Windranger
315 picks · 230 bans
49%
Bane
Bane
301 picks · 291 bans
61%
Pangolier
Pangolier
293 picks · 394 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 421 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Team Syntax
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total50% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:41
Team Syntax 50%Nemiga Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 52:27.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeremptiness
53% · 218 games58% · 39 games
Lone Druidbyun
Lone Druid
Bane
BaneStoic
53% · 246 games52% · 152 games
BeastmasterNefrit
Beastmaster
Clockwerk
ClockwerkJeezy
47% · 258 games50% · 183 games
Ember Spirityoung G
Ember Spirit
46% · 206 games
Snapfireariel
Snapfire
41% · 142 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct36:20
Team Syntax 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark Seeremptiness
49% · 79 games47% · 45 games
Drow Rangerbyun
Drow Ranger
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
44% · 146 games61% · 202 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Tusk
TuskStoic
51% · 332 games47% · 48 games
Earth Spirityoung G
Earth Spirit
53% · 178 games
Ringmasterariel
Ringmaster
52% · 84 games
UndyingJANTER
Undying
Game 3prediction correct41:35
Team Syntax 51%Nemiga Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Team Syntax — the game was taken by Team Syntax in 42:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Snapfire
SnapfireJeezy
49% · 418 games55% · 222 games
Shadow Fiendbyun
Shadow Fiend
Axe
Axeemptiness
50% · 314 games52% · 232 games
Centaur WarrunnerNefrit
Centaur Warrunner
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
53% · 238 games47% · 156 games
Void Spirityoung G
Void Spirit
47% · 93 games
Techiesariel
Techies
46% · 267 games
JakiroJANTER
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 50%
Series resultTeam Syntax 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game3 of 3