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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Natus Vincere Juniorloss 0:2
series probability
26%74%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Winter Bearwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Natus Vincere Junior

Snapfire
Snapfire
Gothic- · 11 games
27%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
rubikon155 · 11 games
18%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
Gothic- · 10 games
20%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Hyugadoto · 9 games
11%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
gbc · 9 games
0%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Gothic- · 9 games
11%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Hyugadoto · 9 games
0%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Gothic- · 8 games
13%

Winter Bear

Invoker
Invokersignature
Panda · 6 games
67%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Panda · 5 games
80%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Panda · 5 games
20%
Razor
Razoroften banned
fortniteMan · 5 games
80%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Delight · 5 games
60%
Warlock
Warlock
Delight · 5 games
20%
Marci
Marcioften banned
waveformn · 4 games
100%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Delight · 4 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
607 picks · 934 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
516 picks · 417 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 619 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 572 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 943 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 249 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 657 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 446 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)18% vs 55%
Hero pool strength71% Winter Bear
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total74% Winter Bear
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:43
Natus Vincere Junior 33%Winter Bear 67%
The model gave 67% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 37:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendonLiTaL
52% · 236 games45% · 123 games
Gyrocopterzuyzyan
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
Brewmasterkrol9ash
47% · 123 games49% · 201 game
PuckPanda
Puck
Bounty Hunter
Bounty HunterGothic-
51% · 108 games59% · 39 games
RazorfortniteMan
Razor
Dazzle
DazzleHyugadoto
50% · 195 games51% · 95 games
Marciwaveformn
Marci
50% · 204 games
JakiroDelight
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct6:20
Natus Vincere Junior 35%Winter Bear 65%
The model gave 65% on Winter Bear — the game was taken by Winter Bear in 23:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Razor
Razorkrol9ash
51% · 80 games41% · 110 games
Weaverzuyzyan
Weaver
Ursa
UrsaonLiTaL
49% · 255 games52% · 309 games
BeastmasterPanda
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyGothic-
52% · 430 games65% · 112 games
EnigmafortniteMan
Enigma
Warlock
WarlockHyugadoto
48% · 475 games48% · 185 games
Marciwaveformn
Marci
47% · 524 games
JakiroDelight
Jakiro
Model check result
Model favoriteWinter Bear · 74%
Series resultWinter Bear 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2