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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Execrationloss 1:1
series probability
44%56%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Execration

Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinoften banned
Bob · 19 games
58%
Puck
Pucksignature
Bob · 16 games
63%
Lina
Linasignature
Bob · 15 games
60%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
RR · 14 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
RR · 13 games
69%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Tino- · 13 games
62%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Bob · 11 games
55%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Luciano · 11 games
45%

Neon Esports

Mirana
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 24 games
67%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 23 games
65%
Lion
Lion
Jaunuel · 21 game
57%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 16 games
56%
Sand King
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 16 games
50%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
53%
Mars
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 14 games
64%
Dark Seer
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 13 games
77%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
264 picks · 337 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
254 picks · 144 bans
53%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
249 picks · 387 bans
53%
Lina
Lina
241 picks · 508 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
228 picks · 504 bans
62%
Pangolier
Pangolier
223 picks · 314 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
218 picks · 292 bans
56%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
215 picks · 253 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)26% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Execration
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total56% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed47:10
Execration 49%Neon Esports 51%
The model gave 51% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Execration in 30:08.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ursa
UrsaMarb
51% · 61 game40% · 25 games
ClinkzPalos
Clinkz
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritBob
48% · 49 games64% · 6 games
HuskarMamangDaya
Huskar
Tidehunter
TidehunterTino-
48% · 70 games48% · 70 games
Legion CommanderEnryu
Legion Commander
Snapfire
SnapfireRR
52% · 46 games55% · 125 games
Monkey KingNARMAN
Monkey King
Game 2prediction correct11:35
Execration 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 33:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinBob
64% · 71 game42% · 50 games
MorphlingPalos
Morphling
Dawnbreaker
DawnbreakerMarb
32% · 14 games42% · 38 games
KunkkaMamangDaya
Kunkka
Magnus
MagnusTino-
57% · 67 games51% · 86 games
TidehunterEnryu
Tidehunter
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRR
47% · 59 games46% · 37 games
WeaverNARMAN
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 56%
Accuracy by game1 of 2