BTS Pro Series Season 9. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenloss 1:1series probability
36%64%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Infamousloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 14 games
Phoenix
Mjz · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Mjz · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 4 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Frank · 4 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Infamous
Gyrocopteroften banned
Lumière · 8 games
Earth Spirit
Michael · 7 games
Tinyoften banned
Michael · 7 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Sacred · 6 games
Lunaoften banned
Berna · 6 games
Dark Seeroften banned
ArzenT · 5 games
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Michael · 5 games
Nyx Assassinoften banned
Pamplona · 5 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
260 picks · 342 bans
Lion
254 picks · 145 bans
Tidehunter
249 picks · 389 bans
Lina
241 picks · 507 bans
Monkey King
228 picks · 498 bans
Pangolier
225 picks · 314 bans
Tiny
218 picks · 292 bans
Void Spirit
214 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)24% vs 44%
Hero pool strength63% Infamous
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total64% Infamous
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed28:10
Thunder Awaken 42%Infamous 58%
The model gave 58% on Infamous — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 31:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
RazorPakazs
SniperLumière
LeshracDarkMago
Legion CommanderSacred
MarsOscar
Dark WillowMichael
IoMatthew
BaneAccel
Ogre MagiPanda
Game 2prediction correct16:44
Thunder Awaken 41%Infamous 59%
The model gave 59% on Infamous — the game was taken by Infamous in 41:24.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladePakazs
UrsaLumière
Ember SpiritDarkMago
MarsSacred
Legion CommanderOscar
LionMichael
IoMatthew
SilencerAccel
Ogre MagiPanda
Model check result
Model favoriteInfamous · 64%
Accuracy by game1 of 2