CCT Season 2 Series 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Inner Circlewin 2:0series probability
74%26%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Inner Circle
Warlock
Se · 25 games
Hoodwink
Fernans · 23 games
Marsoften banned
Norma · 23 games
Tusk
Daze · 23 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Norma · 18 games
Jakirooften banned
Se · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
niche · 17 games
Beastmasteroften banned
niche · 16 games
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 11 games
Dazzle
kyford · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 10 games
Timbersawoften banned
86 · 9 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
606 picks · 934 bans
Tusk
515 picks · 416 bans
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 619 bans
Dragon Knight
429 picks · 572 bans
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 942 bans
Warlock
401 picks · 248 bans
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 657 bans
Tiny
395 picks · 446 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)45% vs 38%
Hero pool strength54% Inner Circle
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total74% Inner Circle
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct32:8
Inner Circle 64%Team Spirit Academy 36%
The model gave 64% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 33:26.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
HuskarSupream^
Weaverrubikon155
Omniknight423
Mars86
Razorlaise
Largokae
TuskFernans
GrimstrokeAidar
DazzleSe
Jakirokyford
Game 2prediction correct41:19
Inner Circle 61%Team Spirit Academy 39%
The model gave 61% on Inner Circle — the game was taken by Inner Circle in 41:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Beastmaster423
Shadow Fiendrubikon155
PuckSupream^
Lina86
Timbersawlaise
Primal Beastkae
HoodwinkFernans
GrimstrokeAidar
SilencerSe
Treant Protectorkyford
Model check result
Model favoriteInner Circle · 74%
Series resultInner Circle 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2