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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
HULIGANIwin 2:1
series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Ilbirs eSportsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

HULIGANI

Mars
Marsoften banned
Bb3px · 45 games
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Bb3px · 41 game
68%
Chen
Chensignature
RESPECT · 36 games
64%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Magesignature
slimeyao · 35 games
69%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
slimeyao · 34 games
56%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
slimeyao · 33 games
70%
Snapfire
Snapfire
RESPECT · 33 games
52%
Tusk
Tusk
slimeyao · 33 games
55%

Ilbirs eSports

Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 3 games
67%
Faceless Void
Faceless Void
xsvampire · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
egx · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
egx · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
egx · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
604 picks · 934 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
514 picks · 417 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
470 picks · 618 bans
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
431 picks · 572 bans
49%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
427 picks · 941 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
401 picks · 248 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
395 picks · 655 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
395 picks · 444 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)62% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% HULIGANI
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total88% HULIGANI
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct21:19
HULIGANI 75%Ilbirs eSports 25%
The model gave 75% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 51:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendMirage
54% · 177 games48% · 299 games
Beastmasteregx
Beastmaster
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
60% · 87 games46% · 122 games
InvokerRain
Invoker
Kunkka
KunkkaBb3px
51% · 129 games49% · 301 game
MarsNorma
Mars
Chen
ChenRESPECT
52% · 146 games46% · 218 games
Hoodwinkxsvampire
Hoodwink
Tusk
Tusksayuw
47% · 401 game
Game 2prediction missed12:23
HULIGANI 73%Ilbirs eSports 27%
The model gave 73% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 37:13.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopterv1olent-
47% · 259 games52% · 429 games
Beastmasteregx
Beastmaster
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerBb3px
53% · 269 games50% · 135 games
HuskarRain
Huskar
Muerta
MuertaMirage
42% · 133 games49% · 181 game
Primal BeastNorma
Primal Beast
Jakiro
Jakirosayuw
52% · 385 games56% · 400 games
Shadow Demonxsvampire
Shadow Demon
Dazzle
DazzleRESPECT
46% · 99 games
Game 3prediction correct22:8
HULIGANI 77%Ilbirs eSports 23%
The model gave 77% on HULIGANI — the game was taken by HULIGANI in 28:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
Lifestealerv1olent-
49% · 106 games39% · 202 games
Gyrocopteregx
Gyrocopter
Brewmaster
BrewmasterBb3px
53% · 59 games63% · 17 games
MeepoRain
Meepo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMirage
57% · 271 game48% · 229 games
MarsNorma
Mars
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath MageRESPECT
45% · 111 games49% · 157 games
Batriderxsvampire
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsayuw
63% · 58 games
Model check result
Model favoriteHULIGANI · 88%
Series resultHULIGANI 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3