BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportsloss 1:1series probability
48%52%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Neon Esportsloss 1:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Polaris Esports
Lionsignature
cml · 8 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
Mac · 6 games
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 5 games
Silenceroften banned
cml · 5 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 4 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
Neon Esports
Miranasignature
PlayHard · 25 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Tims · 23 games
Lion
Jaunuel · 20 games
Gyrocopteroften banned
Unknown- · 17 games
Sand Kingoften banned
Yopaj · 17 games
Nature's Prophet
Skem · 15 games
Marssignature
xiaoyu154 · 14 games
Dark Seersignature
Enryu · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
265 picks · 349 bans
Lion
263 picks · 149 bans
Tidehunter
252 picks · 387 bans
Lina
251 picks · 511 bans
Pangolier
228 picks · 327 bans
Monkey King
226 picks · 492 bans
Tiny
222 picks · 294 bans
Void Spirit
216 picks · 253 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 39%
Hero pool strength55% Neon Esports
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% Neon Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:34
Polaris Esports 48%Neon Esports 52%
The model gave 52% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Neon Esports in 40:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith KingNatsumi
LeshracMamangDaya
Ember SpiritMac
DoomPalos
Dark SeerForce
TidehunterEnryu
Naga SirenBoomy
LionNARMAN
Disruptorcml
Game 2prediction missed47:25
Polaris Esports 50%Neon Esports 50%
The model gave 50% on Neon Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 36:55.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinNatsumi
Phantom LancerPalos
PuckMac
KunkkaMamangDaya
BeastmasterForce
DawnbreakerEnryu
SilencerBoomy
SnapfireNARMAN
Lioncml
Model check result
Model favoriteNeon Esports · 52%
Accuracy by game1 of 2