BTS Pro Series Season 9. Америка · BO2
result vs prediction
Thunder Awakenwin 2:0series probability
89%11%
probability at match start · final 2:0
simply TOOBASEDloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Thunder Awaken
Marsoften banned
Frank · 13 games
Phoenixoften banned
Mjz · 8 games
Earth Spirit
MoOz · 5 games
Void Spiritoften banned
Leostyle · 5 games
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Mjz · 4 games
Batrideroften banned
Leostyle · 4 games
Centaur Warrunner
Frank · 4 games
Elder Titan
MoOz · 4 games
simply TOOBASED
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
273 picks · 150 bans
Mars
262 picks · 349 bans
Lina
256 picks · 512 bans
Tidehunter
251 picks · 388 bans
Pangolier
230 picks · 330 bans
Monkey King
226 picks · 482 bans
Tiny
223 picks · 296 bans
Shadow Demon
219 picks · 230 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)22% vs 25%
Hero pool strength63% simply TOOBASED
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total89% Thunder Awaken
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:11
Thunder Awaken 89%simply TOOBASED 11%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 27:19.
Game 2prediction correct30:28
Thunder Awaken 89%simply TOOBASED 11%
The model gave 89% on Thunder Awaken — the game was taken by Thunder Awaken in 32:25.
Model check result
Model favoriteThunder Awaken · 89%
Series resultThunder Awaken 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2