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BTS Pro Series Season 9. ЮВА · BO2
result vs prediction
Polaris Esportswin 2:0
series probability
69%31%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Omega Esportsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Polaris Esports

Lion
Lion
cml · 7 games
57%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Force · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Mac · 5 games
60%
Mirana
Mirana
Boomy · 5 games
40%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Boomy · 5 games
60%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Mac · 4 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
0%
Lifestealer
Lifestealeroften banned
Natsumi · 4 games
50%

Omega Esports

Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Mac · 6 games
50%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
Tino- · 6 games
50%
Broodmother
Broodmotheroften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
60%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
Sam_H · 5 games
80%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Sam_H · 5 games
20%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Mac · 5 games
40%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Sam_H · 4 games
0%
Enchantress
Enchantress
cml · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
271 picks · 150 bans
53%
Mars
Mars
262 picks · 345 bans
49%
Lina
Lina
255 picks · 509 bans
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
250 picks · 385 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
230 picks · 329 bans
49%
Monkey King
Monkey King
226 picks · 477 bans
61%
Tiny
Tiny
222 picks · 296 bans
55%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
219 picks · 230 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)35% vs 16%
Hero pool strength50% Polaris Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total69% Polaris Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct30:14
Polaris Esports 60%Omega Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 34:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Nature's Prophet
Nature's ProphetNatsumi
58% · 29 games47% · 164 games
Earth SpiritEren
Earth Spirit
Kunkka
KunkkaMac
50% · 28 games
Tidehunter
TidehunterForce
60% · 36 games
Silencer
SilencerBoomy
38% · 4 games
Tusk
Tuskcml
46% · 67 games
Game 2prediction correct35:13
Polaris Esports 61%Omega Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Polaris Esports — the game was taken by Polaris Esports in 32:52.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Magnus
MagnusNatsumi
41% · 25 games47% · 162 games
SnapfireEren
Snapfire
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritMac
65% · 30 games
Dark Seer
Dark SeerForce
56% · 23 games
Naga Siren
Naga SirenBoomy
57% · 3 games
Lion
Lioncml
51% · 81 game
Model check result
Model favoritePolaris Esports · 69%
Series resultPolaris Esports 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2